Expert-Grade NFL & NHL Prop Selections: November 20th, 2025

Josh Allens propensity for explosive plays makes the Over 36.5 yards on his longest pass completion a compelling wager. Recent performances have seen Allen connect on deep shots of 43 and 52 yards, establishing a high floor for this prop. His consistent ability to push the ball downfield is a key offensive weapon for the Bills, and the matchup against the Houston Texans presents an opportunity to exploit defensive vulnerabilities. While the Texans defense is solid overall, they have shown susceptibility to big plays, making Allens arm talent a significant advantage. The Bills offensive philosophy under normal game conditions supports this prop. With a projected close game, conservative play-calling that might limit deep shots is less likely.

Allens elite QB rating of 105.1 underscores his efficiency and capability to execute throws of significant yardage. The Texans defense, while capable, has not demonstrated the consistent lockdown ability to completely neutralize a quarterback with Allens caliber of deep-ball accuracy and power. This prop hinges on Allens consistent ability to find open receivers deep, a trait he has showcased repeatedly this season. Furthermore, the offensive volume and opportunity share for Allen are substantial. He commands 100% of the Bills passing attempts, averaging a healthy 29.3 attempts per game. This volume, coupled with a pass rate of 46.3%, ensures a consistent stream of opportunities for downfield passes.

The conservative nature of the 36.5-yard line, given Allens recent track record, presents a clear value proposition. Historical data also supports this, with Allen frequently averaging one to two completions over 20 yards per game, which often translates to longer gains. The risk assessment for this prop acknowledges the inherent variance in deep passing. However, Allens consistent performance and the favorable matchup significantly mitigate this risk. The confidence score of 8/10 reflects a strong conviction in his ability to achieve at least one completion exceeding 36.5 yards. Adverse weather could be a factor, but current projections do not highlight this as a significant impediment.

The value proposition is strong, with an assessed win probability of approximately 68%, indicating a significant edge over the implied market odds.

Davis Mills transition into the starting quarterback role for the Houston Texans has been marked by exceptional ball security, making the Under 0.5 Pass Interceptions prop a high-value play. In his last two starts, Mills has recorded zero interceptions, demonstrating a conservative and efficient approach to decision-making. This trend is supported by a solid completion rate of 68% and a touchdown-to-interception ratio that heavily favors the latter. The projected game script plays a significant role in this assessment. The Texans are expected to be in a close contest against the Buffalo Bills, with a narrow point spread.

This suggests a balanced and controlled offensive approach, rather than one that necessitates risky, desperation throws. Mills conservative style is well-suited for such a game, minimizing the opportunities for turnovers. The Bills defense, while capable of generating turnovers, often relies on opponents making aggressive mistakes, which Mills is unlikely to provide. Furthermore, Mills commands 100% of the quarterback opportunities, averaging around 30 pass attempts per game. This consistent volume, within a moderate pass rate of 57.4%, ensures he will be actively involved without being forced into a high-risk, pass-heavy situation.

The Texans offensive line has provided adequate protection, allowing only about two sacks per game, which supports Mills ability to get the ball out quickly and avoid pressure-induced errors. His recent performance indicates a strong understanding of the offense and a commitment to protecting the football. The risk associated with this prop is primarily tied to a sudden shift in game script that forces the Texans into a significant comeback scenario. However, the low projected spread makes this less likely. The confidence score of 8/10 reflects a strong belief in Mills ability to maintain his clean sheet of interceptions.

The assessed win probability, estimated between 75% and 80%, highlights the significant edge this prop offers.

Lucas Raymonds consistent shot volume and elevated offensive role make the Over 2.5 Shots on Goal prop a prime target. Raymond has demonstrated remarkable consistency, exceeding this line in seven of his last ten games and maintaining a robust average of 3.1 shots per game at home. This sustained performance indicates a strong baseline for generating offensive opportunities and getting pucks on net. The matchup against the New York Islanders presents a highly favorable environment for Raymond to continue his shot-generating prowess. The Islanders are one of the leagues more porous defensive units, ranking 24th in shots allowed per game (31.2).

They have also shown a recent tendency to concede high shot totals, allowing 30 or more shots in seven of their last ten contests. This defensive vulnerability creates ample space and opportunity for Red Wings forwards like Raymond to create chances. Raymonds usage is a significant factor. He is a fixture on the Power Play 1 unit, where his shot rate per 60 minutes is an elite 8.0. This special teams deployment, combined with his top-six forward status, ensures he is consistently on the ice during high-leverage offensive situations.

The absence of Patrick Kane has further amplified Raymonds offensive responsibilities, placing him at the forefront of the Red Wings attack. The projected high-scoring game total further suggests a fast pace and increased overall shot volume, benefiting Raymonds prop. The statistical edge for this prop is substantial. Raymonds historical hit rate of 70% far surpasses the implied probability of his line at -110 odds. Projections consistently show him exceeding the 2.5-shot mark by a notable margin.

The value assessment is strong, with a high confidence level and a significant positive expected value per unit wagered. The primary risk lies in potential sharp line movement or exceptional goaltending from the Islanders, but the current market conditions and Raymonds consistent performance make this a high-conviction play.