Value NHL Prop Bets: October 13th, 2025 Opportunities

Kyle Connor enters this matchup demonstrating truly elite early-season form, highlighted by a commanding hat trick in the season opener. This performance is not merely a statistical anomaly but a clear indicator of peak offensive confidence and execution. His ability to consistently generate scoring chances is further validated by advanced metrics such as Corsi For % (CF%) and Expected Goals (xG), which confirm his role as a primary offensive driver for the Winnipeg Jets. Even against a defensively structured team like the New York Islanders, Connors speed and finishing prowess present a significant challenge.

His high volume ice time, particularly on the top power-play unit, provides multiple high-leverage opportunities to record at least one point. The Jets top line chemistry and Connors deployment in offensive zone starts further enhance his prospects of success. The Islanders defensive system is designed to limit high-danger chances, but Connors shot volume and precision from medium danger areas are key to breaking down such structures. The Jets ability to maintain offensive zone time will be crucial in neutralizing the Islanders tight neutral zone defense.

While this is an away game at the Islanders venue, introducing potential travel fatigue and crowd noise, Connors scoring splits have historically remained strong regardless of location. The current odds of +100 present a substantial value proposition, offering a significant statistical edge over the implied probability. The statistical projection for Connor to record at least one point stands at an impressive 80%, which creates a remarkable 30% edge over the 50% implied probability of the +100 line. This strong mathematical foundation is further supported by a high Expected Value (EV) of 1.4 units, classifying this prop as a high-confidence play with a 9/10 value rating.

The market may not have fully priced in Connors current hot streak and his consistent ability to drive offense, making this an opportune moment to capitalize on perceived undervaluation.

Bobby Brink is currently experiencing a significant surge in offensive production, culminating in a multi-point performance in his most recent outing. This recent success points to a peak in offensive confidence entering this contest against the Florida Panthers. Adding to the favorable outlook is a highly advantageous matchup against a Panthers team that is grappling with significant defensive absences, notably missing key two-way forwards. This compromised defensive structure is expected to create increased scoring opportunities for the Philadelphia Flyers.

Brinks recent shot volume is also encouraging, averaging approximately three shots per game over his last five contests, indicating consistent engagement and a willingness to drive play. The Panthers defensive unit is severely weakened due to these key injuries, which directly impacts their ability to suppress scoring chances and transition effectively. Their current team goals-against average (GAA) of 3.2 further suggests they are struggling to maintain defensive solidity. Brinks deployment in a scoring role, evidenced by a strong 55% Corsi For (CF%), indicates that his line is effectively controlling possession in the offensive zone.

His historical preference for home games, where he averages 0.5 points per game, aligns perfectly with the required line for this prop. The current odds of -110 suggest the market has not fully adjusted to the Panthers injury situation or Brinks recent hot streak. The model projects Brink at 0.6 Expected Points (xPts), providing a substantial 7.6% edge over the implied probability of the -110 line. This positive Expected Value calculation, coupled with a strong 8/10 Value Rating, positions this prop as a high-confidence play due to its favorable risk/reward profile.

The edge percentage significantly surpasses typical market fluctuations, justifying a higher confidence stake.

Josh Allens dual-threat capabilities as both a passer and a rusher establish him as a consistent touchdown-scoring threat, making the Anytime TD prop an elite value proposition. His ability to impact the game with his arm and his legs provides a high scoring floor, and his recent performance trends indicate a strong likelihood of finding the end zone in this matchup against the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons struggling run defense presents a clear vulnerability that Allen is well-positioned to exploit on designed runs and scrambles. This matchup advantage significantly increases his chances of scoring.

Allens proficiency in handling blitzes and pressure is another critical factor. His strong performance against defensive pressure reduces the likelihood of drive-killing sacks and, conversely, increases the potential for extending plays and converting scoring chances, especially in the red zone. The primetime Monday Night Football stage, while historically not Allens most dominant platform, often brings out elevated performances from star quarterbacks. The current odds of -105 offer fair value, implying a win probability of just over 51%.

Our analysis suggests a true probability closer to 60-65%, generating a significant edge over the market. Allens efficiency metrics, including his completion rate and yards per attempt, remain robust, confirming his ability to move the offense effectively into scoring positions. This consistent ball movement reduces reliance on lengthy drives and increases the frequency of red-zone opportunities. The projected 60% win probability and an estimated 8.8% minimum edge over the market, coupled with a high Value Rating of 8/10, underscore the favorable pricing for a player of Allens caliber.

His ability to consistently generate scoring opportunities, both through the air and on the ground, makes this prop a compelling wager.